New York San Francisco
Post by iconPost by hardy2 | 2020-07-31 | 08:23:04

Will there be the New York San Francisco race?

commenticon 97 Comments
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-07-31 | 16:33:05
This is the last year setup.

http://zezo.org/nysf/chart.pl

But the current boat is still unknown.

Post by iconPost by hardy2 | 2020-07-31 | 16:42:59
ok thank you, maybe a maxi trimaran.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-01 | 00:13:02
It's a monohull maxi 100.

About 10% slower than last year's crewed maxi trimaran in winds less than 20 kts, and then much slower in higher winds.

The event indeed closes after 65 days, and it will be difficult to finish a run in under 33 days in this boat. So... it will be unlikely to finish two runs, and even if it's possible, you'll have to start the second run immediately after finishing the first, without waiting for good timing. So the smart strategy is to wait as much as a month to find a start you're happy with (but probably start by the end of August). OR, plan that you'll hit the "return to port" button and pay 1,000 credits to do so, if your first attempt doesn't look good.

I'll probably start soon anyway, just to see if I can finish two runs. I'm weird that way.

Edit: Nope. Can't make myself click the "Start" button. Not in 2 kts when it'll be a lot better by Sunday. I'll be kicking myself if the guys who slog out a tough start get a great ride up the Pacific in two weeks, but I'm gonna wait. It means two finishes will be almost impossible, but so be it.
Post by iconPost by SlyStarLeRetour | 2020-08-01 | 01:14:42
let's try to "click on the start button":) but i agree 2 knots is not fun at all... Have a good race though
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-02 | 18:01:57
Cvetan, a minor suggestion... When one clicks on a time in the predicted times table, the default destination is SF... so to get a useable routing, you then have to tell it to go to Pedras or Horn. Could you please make Pedras or Horn the default destination?
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-08-03 | 09:48:45
Thanks. Fixed.
Post by iconPost by UUnet | 2020-08-04 | 22:06:59
Thx cvetan.
Post by iconPost by Pimpi | 2020-08-02 | 18:21:48
Guys, many thanks for your comments/suggestions! It was very useful to read them! I would like to have two rounds. Thus, "I clicked on the start button" but, with 8 knots! ;) I think that I'll pay 1.000 credits if there will be better conditions. Let's see!

Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-12 | 15:12:59
Funny... the equator gate isn't actually exactly on the equator. I don't recall that happening before. The Brazil end is just north and the Africa end is just south. Not important, just confusing to see the line turn green while my coordinates still say N.

A lot of boats set fast times to the equator be sailing to the Western end of the gate... We won't really know who's doing well until Cape Horn. So NZ-Eligo has a few good boats with him and seems to be the leader of that pack. If they run into a wall and I catch up, that'll be good for me, but better for CocoNeuil who started an hour before me but has almost caught me.

Of course, this'll probably be won by someone who starts alone at a time when the routing to the equator isn't particularly good, who then gets great weather in the Pacific. No way to predict the second half of this race in advance.

Post by iconPost by UUnet | 2020-08-13 | 11:45:11
+1
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-12 | 17:31:08
My analysis reached the same conclusion. I see NZ-Eligo as the true leader.

Having the ranking gate as they did really distorts things. All those boats who crossed on the west end will be no where in sight come Pedras.

Now I'm trying to figure out how you slipped ahead of me YM.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-12 | 19:59:46
I'm going to group these by start time, and sort them by Equator rank within each group, with their UTC start time listed.

Group 1: Immediate starters
Vario24 8/1 00:04
Fransou 8/1 00:02
argo 8/1 00:02
Fouras_17 8/1 00:03
BleuTiger 8/1 00:03

Group 2: Isaias Early
dany51 8/2 20:00
Brasserie_Goudale 8/2 20:00
LUKALIZ 8/2 20:09
Aigle-Vert 8/2 19:22
Mavala 8/2 20:07
Vicvol 8/2 16:12

Group 3: Isaias Late
NZ-Eligo 8/2 21:39
zapple 8/2 22:25
RouteD13 8/2 20:49
Colin767 8/2 21:00
jakoufr 8/2 21:00
Phil o Soph 8/2 21:12

Group 4: Isaias Later
AUS DF2 8/2 23:29
CocoNeuil 8/3 01:02
Your Mom SA 8/3 00:02
HossegorOcean40 8/3 07:00
Furious49 8/2 23:00
pier123 8/3 02:40
BooBill 8/2 23:56

My read on this is...
-If Group 1 gets good conditions later and sails away, all five of those boats have a good shot.
-The leaders of Group 3 have nearly caught all of Group 2. Group 2 still looks fine for strong overall ranks, but Group 3 looks stronger for the overall lead.
-But... The best for the overall lead is AUS DF2 from Group 4. He has caught some of Groups 2 and 3 and is way ahead of everyone else in Group 4. zapple is also contending to do the same, with the latest start in Group 3.
-If Groups 2 and 3 run into slow conditions and Group 4 catches up to them, then CocoNeuil looks very good.

Until of course a later group comes along and puts all of the above boats into 600+th place.








Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-12 | 20:40:16
Thanks for that. Keeping an eye on TD Eleven. Producing some very good start predictions for next Tuesday if it stays out to sea.

What happened to Sly? He was running at the front of group 1 as usual, but appears to have closed his account again.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-12 | 21:12:10
I think he closed his account. He's done it at least once before. Changed his name to Guest and signed off. His Europa boat was going pretty well and went aground.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-12 | 21:54:54
I think if you delete your account your boat name changes to random Guest number and keeps on sailing. If you have any sense of humor change it to Mary Celeste before disappearing.

Post by iconPost by huditojo | 2020-08-16 | 10:26:10
Hello...I would like to know why there are 3 number 2 buoys?Does it mean that we can cross to the Pacific without passing Cape Horn buoy(if the weather conditions are favorable)?
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-16 | 12:18:10
Two (Cape Horn and Antarctica) form a gate, which you must observe. So you must round the horn. The third, in the middle of South America, is effectively decorative.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-19 | 01:24:57
The first batch of boats have rounded Cape Horn. Fouras_17 helped me to identify those who weren't already in my Group 1 list earlier. Here are the boats I know of, with their current Cape Horn rank and their UTC start time:

1 Cristau - PYR 8/1 05:37.
2 fransou 8/1 00:02
3 corsaire2B 8/1 00:20
4 IntegralAC 8/1 03:19
5 Fouras_17 8/1 00:03
6 Vario24 8/1 00:04
8 BleuTiger 8/1 00:03

I'm not sure who the 7th place boat thus far is. I'm not looking to keep adding to the list... But I figure for now, it's worthwhile to be aware of the boats who break 18 days.

fransou is the first boat on the water. Then corsaire, and then Fouras and Vario. Cristau and Integral are behind on the water, but also started later. I think they've already lost their margin, though... The first three or four boats got some reaching conditions after the horn before the breeze came forward, whereas they were beating into a westerly straightaway.

argo is the only boat I named in my earlier list that hasn't rounded yet. He's sailing toward Antarctica at the moment.

As far as I know, the next boat to break 18 days will be NZ-Eligo.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-19 | 02:11:02
Do you see any starters later than Group 4 running competitive times? By my calcs Group 4 is expected 17d 7h-19h at the Cape, me being tail end Charlie :(

Our rounding should come just before the next good start window, so, nice to know if those times would hold.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-19 | 04:03:24
Several good boats like gushami and JD1 started four days ago. I'm not checking anyone's routings but mine, so I don't know their projection to Cape Horn. I think they'll put up good Equator times, but the Atlantic looks to be going soft just South of the equator a week from now. I'm hoping that softness will sit around for a month and crush the spirits of anyone who aspires to get to Cape Horn under 3 weeks.
Post by iconPost by LinusVanpelt | 2020-08-19 | 09:49:57
Hi i'm in the gushami group. I don't think we'll break 18 days at the Horn with less good conditions than you in south atlantic. But hope to have better in Pacific if pilot charts are telling true, for one time this year ;)
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-19 | 15:13:37
Looking around the Horn and the high appears to be strengthening and offshore for Group 4's arrival. Getting a ski lift between the high and the Chilean coast is worth a lot more than a good ride down down the north Atlantic.

Last year guys were sailing 1500 miles SW to get around an approaching low. You could get away with that in the Ultims with their topend, but not the maxi's.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-19 | 16:07:57
Correct. The Group 1 guys are getting a better run from Cape Horn so far than Groups 2, 3, and 4 will. But 3-4 days from now, Groups 2, 3, and 4 will be moving pretty fast. I'm not sure what the transition will look like for Group 1.

There's a very good chance someone between Group 4 and gushami's group will pick up a sweet ride in the South Pacific and put up a surprise fast time at the Pacific Equator gate.

Of course, we still have 46+ days to race close, so almost two weeks of viable starting times where more contenders could emerge.

It's still plausible that Group 1 might be able to complete a second run, if they start immediately after finishing, and both times are excellent. Seems unlikely, though.

Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-19 | 17:48:51
Seems to me we haven't seen a lot of the big names out on the course yet. With time running out, we may see a mass start on Sunday.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-19 | 18:36:22
Maybe, but I think the boats who are really keen to max out their VSR score are choosing to not do events like this. Too much risk, particularly in longer record events like this one, of choosing the wrong start time and putting up a poor finish beyond what any amount of skill or experience can overcome. With a VSR over 4980, a finish outside the top 300 in a Category 2 event can do a lot of damage.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-19 | 20:41:34
The ranking system certainly does discourage risk taking and long record attempts where you only have one attempt are all about risk.

I do consider them much more a test of navigation skill and meterological knowledge than the short fleet races though, which are much more about precisely executing the zezo generated route.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-20 | 16:25:52
I've reviewed all of the boats to have broken 18 days at Cape Horn so far. I think there will probably be a few more before this wave is finished. I'll edit this comment to update it if needed. Of the 38 to have broken 18 days so far, here are the ones I'm tracking as potential contenders... I've added some who I missed at the equator, and removed some who are still doing fine but have been passed by boats who started after them.

I'm listing them with Cape Horn rank, Name, and UTC Start Time.

Day 1 Starters who haven't been passed by anyone who started 2+ hours behind them, sorted by order on the water:
22 fransou 8/1 00:02
25 corsaire2B 8/1 00:20
29 Fouras_17 8/1 00:02
27 IntegralAC 8/1 03:19
16 CRISTAU 8/1 05:36
31 KONTIKI76 8/1 04:19
26 K1-cparou 8/1 08:18
28 Volador 8/1 12:00

fransou is first on the water, but none of these boats have been passed by anyone who started heavily behind them... So they all can potentially have the best elapsed time simply by gaining on those who started before them. This group has been escaping from the next wave, with favorable conditions up the Chilean coast. If that persists, they may regain the elapsed time lead.

Day 2 starters with top 10 Cape Horn times, sorted by Cape Horn rank:
1 NZ-Eligo 8/2 21:39
2 AUS DF2 8/2 23:29
3 Colin767 8/2 21:00
4 RouteD13 8/2 20:49
5 jakoufr 8/2 21:00
6 LOKY77 8/2 20:28
7 Brasserie 8/2 20:00
8 Your Mom SA 8/3 00:02
9 CocoNeuil 8/3 01:02
10 Aigle-Vert 8/2 19:22

There are some big gaps. AUS DF2 is 90 minutes ahead of Colin767, and RouteD13 is 98 minutes ahead of jakoufr. So NZ-Eligo has a good advantage, but if fleet compression occurs, he may be passed on elapsed time by later starters. AUS DF2 is in the best position for that, and then me and CocoNeuil. But CocoNeuil and I need hours of fleet compression to have a chance.

Edit: 50 boats have now reached Cape Horn under 18 days. We might see a few more before the gushami group, but I think it has been 18 days now since the end of the Isaias start window. Among the 12 boats who passed Cape Horn after my original post, the one in the best position to contend is HossegorOcean40. He's the latest starter (by hours) of boats to have reached Cape Horn under 18 days. His elapsed time is 13 hours off the lead, but fleet compression can kill that in a hurry.

It will be very interesting to see who starts (and who quits to re-start) in the coming days. The excellent window for this weekend fell apart a bit with the latest forecast, but still doesn't look bad... but it's spread out over several days now... Very hard to tell when is the right time to go, if you want to go. I think I'll break 32 days, so I'm not going to restart. We've got a pretty good Pacific forecast, and our South Atlantic was pretty good too.


Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-21 | 20:43:47
I can think of 18 people I'd like to see restart ;)
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-23 | 03:15:25
If this upcoming start window holds, it's a 48 hour window. That means we won't see a mass start, but a train 48 hours long. They will all have good times to Pt Pedras, but only a few of them will time it right at the Horn and miss all the other South Atlantic and Pacific pitfalls.

Plays to the hand of those on the course with good times (as much as I'd like those ahead of me to restart). There might be a couple of boats that sneak in a time ahead of us, but it's unlikely to be a mass fleet of hundreds.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-28 | 15:03:12
FWIW... CocoNeuil has crossed the Equator, accounting for the last of the boats from my Cape Horn list, and the list hasn't changed enough to be worth re-posting. Cristau passed Integral on the water, and in the second group, AUS passed NZ and Aigle passed me on elapsed time (but not on the water). No one jumped into or out of the lists. Mavala, Ginn.thomas, and Vicvol are 11, 12, and 13 on elapsed time. Hossegor got overrun with light wind and has fallen back.

So the early leaders should be from that group. The current elapsed time leaders all suffered a 12+ hour loss on projected elapsed time in the last day or so, when Pacific cyclones Hernan and Iselle changed from a forecast of merging into something useful to more of a fizzled out mess. The Day 1 starters may get enough more from Iselle than the current leaders, so fransou and friends still have a chance to put up the best times.

Then it will be a very long wait to see who can do better, if anyone. With perfect conditions, it may be possible to break 30 days. But perfect conditions for a whole month are unlikely. The thing is... we're projected to be quite slow for the last 2-3 days... A boat that gets to the Pacific Equator a day behind us on elapsed time might make up that whole day and more in the last 500 nm.

I'm also wondering if anyone will be able to complete two attempts. There will be maybe 200 finishers before the "time to close" drops below 30 days. Maybe 50 before it drops below 31. Maybe 8 before it goes below 32. So... possible... with luck... but not for many boats.

A suggestion... for anyone who finishes their first run too late to bother trying a second run... Try to establish a new best time for the Atlantic Equator gate. A well-time run toward the Western end of the gate might produce an interesting challenge. When I went through there, the leader was at 7:16:05. I wonder if anyone can break 7 days.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-29 | 15:59:56
We've got some restarters. BossHogg and Wallin that I can see. They are betting everything on a great run, or else they may end up with DNF.

Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-29 | 19:44:54
First run is totally falling apart for everyone who started in the first three days. A couple days ago, I had an ETA on August 3. Now it's on August 5. For a long time, I thought we were putting up a result no one would be likely to beat, but now I think a bunch of boats will pass us by having good weather for the final 700 nm or so.

Unfortunately, VR's ghost boats are probably still screwed up. We'll find out once fransou finishes. I don't think ghost boats can go further than something like 24 or 25 days... so in last year's edition of this race, the leader's ghost simply stopped in the middle of the Pacific.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-30 | 13:06:36
The conditions the early starters are going to face approaching the finish, I would call normal. Anyone coming behind have a high likelyhood of encountering the same thing. After a pretty blessed run from equator to equator, it can't all be a tailwind.

The thing I worry more about are the groups between 4 and 5 days out. They are reporting 17 day ETA's to the Cape.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-31 | 16:55:38
Interesting... They just put up a message saying the line will close October 10... but the game itself says October 4...
Post by iconPost by UUnet | 2020-09-04 | 08:12:02
In the game I see October 5 at 2 AM, do they change anymore ?
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-04 | 12:12:22
It is unchanged. (October 4, 7 PM, in my time zone). I believe the message that said October 10 was a mistake, but who knows... They haven't corrected it.

An update for those not watching...

- We had some serious fleet compression in the final few days. CocoNeuil looks really good for the lead, and should finish in a few hours. I'm hopeful to have the second best time.

-fransou was the first to finish, by a few hours. Excellent opening run, and would have had the best time if not for a couple days of being stuck in very light winds approaching the finish.

-Cristau finished a few hours later with the best time thus far. 32:21:57. That time will probably stay pretty good, but several Isaias Day 3 starters will post better.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-05 | 00:17:22
Weird thing going on. After reloading the race several times and exiting and reentering VR, I can still only see teammates on the course. I can not see people I follow. I can see them if I search by name and zero in on them, but then they disappar when I exit and re-enter the race. Anyone else experiencing this?

Now, here's the other thing. If you click the view selector, there appears to be another option, that's greyed out. If you look at the icon, it looks like a radar screen or AIS feature. Probably something that requires VIP to access. But, that would be really cool.
Post by iconPost by LinusVanpelt | 2020-09-05 | 05:40:54
Hi Boobill
No problem seing your new attempt ! but it's true it wasn't the same just after your restart : time for register ?

For the greyed option on screenplay, it's a view of the polars of the boat, but with a 360°view, so with zezo not so useful...
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-05 | 10:12:27
Has that always been there? Never really noticed it I guess.

I can still only see teammates and boats that restarted after me. Can't see you for instance Linus, unless I put your name in the search box.

Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-09 | 10:36:56
Looks like two boat slipped into the top 10 yesterday.

I'm still not seeing any competitors on the water, other than teammates that are ahead of me, and YMSA and NZ-Elgo, just behind me. Weird bug.

We are nearly a day ahead of CocoNeuil's pace, but will still need a miracle to finish before the close.

Anyone able to see any boats on the course with a chance of top ten, or resetting the record pace?
Post by iconPost by LinusVanpelt | 2020-09-09 | 12:34:28
Hi Boobill

yes i'm able able to see some boats ;)

I'm in a group with a forecast about 17 days at the Horn & prediction (at today)about 32 /32,5 days at SF. But ok it's onely a prediction for the moment.

I think there are some boats, started 24, 25 ... august in these conditions, but i cann't see a lot of boats.
An exemple : kaze wo atsumate

So sail & hope
Post by iconPost by Luis75 | 2020-09-09 | 17:18:49
I started on 30th Aug at 00:03 CEST and I am around 6 hours behind BossHogg on the water. Prediction to CH is 17 days...let's see!
BTW are you facing any problem with the grib update on Zezo? Already for some days, it seems that the update file is somehow corrupted for quite some time (e.g. right now - 17:20 UTC - the update file is gfs.t12z+12.

Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-09 | 17:36:08
See the new thread for NOAA maintenance.
Post by iconPost by Luis75 | 2020-09-09 | 17:43:13
Thanks!
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-10 | 16:58:17
New pacesetter to the horn. Dinio in 16d 14h.

Running his routing with messed up data (see NOAA maintenance thread) looks like they aren't going to have the blessed run up the Pacific that the current leaders did. Routing ends with him off LA in 32d even.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-10 | 17:02:50
Once Linus and the others from that start window are all through, can someone from that group identify how many boats rounded in less than 17.5 days or so, and maybe list a sampling the best? It would be nice to be able to track them toward the finish.

I'd particularly be curious about the latest starter to get around with a good time. If fleet compression occurs later, they could make up hours on boats ahead.
Post by iconPost by JohnT | 2020-09-10 | 22:00:35
Currently there are 22 boats around the Horn faster than NZ_Eligo: all in less than 16d22h. Start times bunched: almost all in a 4hr window.
Current leaders (based on avg speed): Desmat & Kiki&Zezette-LCDA are among early ones; Dinio and espadon_44 were the among the last to start and made up ~2hrs on the early starters.

All very depressing since the start window I picked has not worked out well!
cheers
JohnT/Truffle Hunter

Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-09-11 | 14:32:56
I'm at the Cape now, so:

1st - Dino - 16:14:02
51. Vega - +07:11
101. Grand Large 2 - +12:47

About 130 boats below 17d:12h
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-11 | 17:19:48
Thanks, guys. Very helpful. The latest South Atlantic forecasts were bad news for the group I'm with, so if that doesn't improve (and the deadline is really October 4), we won't have a chance to finish. I'll keep racing until I'm confident I can't make it. But mostly, I have to hope your group has an awful second half. You'll probably see Coco's ghost make gains on you in the South Pacific, but we got really slow for a while in the finale.
Post by iconPost by JohnT | 2020-09-11 | 22:00:44
Almost certain the deadline is Oct 4th - although says 10th in english in the news, it clearly 5th in the french version, and in the race info...
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-17 | 16:33:25
franckhamburg just finished inside the top 50. Others in the Ghostbuster group should finish today and tonight. Some may be in the top 50, but I don't think any will be within 12 hours of Coco, so I think they'll all be behind Fouras (currently 38th).

After that, I don't think there will be any more fast finishers until dinio, desmat, et al. Of course, after them, we'll have several days of good finishes...
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-17 | 22:48:28
Going to be a nailbiter. The Dinio/Desmat group is stil ahead on pace, but looking like just shy of 33 days on predicted.

BTW, Monday is looking like an epic start window, if anyone wants to restart and go for the equator record.

Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-20 | 01:46:42
Correct that. Little tropical disturbance pops up and now I have the Dinio/Desmat group finishing around 31d 9h. Hopefully smoke will be obscuring the finish line.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-20 | 12:55:12
We had one of those that looked pretty good... and then died... our ETA lost most of a day when it died. This one looks more stable, so I guess those who already finished just has to hope there aren't too many boats with dinio and friends... and that the system doesn't last too long...
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-09-21 | 05:01:38
Time for the current Equator leaders looks around 31.5 days right now. Looking at tutrtle1663 with 26:09:37 so far and 120h forecast.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-21 | 12:40:39
My pace back to the equator has slipped from 12th to 135th with I think all of that group past the gate now. So, there is over 100 boats in that group.

The leaders of that group appear to be holding steady at a 31d 9h pace.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-21 | 15:27:34
This is why the boats who care about VSR don't do races like this. You can sail an outstanding race and then get crushed by 200+ boats, beyond your control.

I'm not sure if I'll do this one again. It's fun, but infuriating. Then again, i've said that about Spindrift / Jules Verne for years, and I keep doing it anyway.

As far as I know, the other end of the fleet that started in that days-long good start window is BossHogg and Luis75. Once dinio and desmat finish, we'll have a week of waiting to see just how many good finishes get posted.
Post by iconPost by Luis75 | 2020-09-21 | 16:12:15
Yes, BossHogg gained a couple of hours on me but is 4 hours western. My passage at CH was quite good, 16d 17h: then a lot of time lost moving SW with heavy wind on the face.
Difficult to say what will be in 10 days: routing moves between 32 and 33 days, the system seems pretty unstable for us.
However, even if I care of VSR, I really like these events and will continue participating :)
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-21 | 17:19:49
36Min ahead of Dinio at the Equator, and now about 2 hours ahead, with projected 100h wind at 1900CET, but conditions will be pretty volatile in this area and 2 hours mean not much over that time frame. Feeling confident though as they might have gone too far East, we'll see. Projected ETA 31days, 20h





Post by iconPost by FlyingCloud | 2020-09-22 | 08:18:12
Well, positions at a gate doesn't say too much. Luke31 was way ahead of me at #1 at Cape Horn coming behind me but now more than a day behind me (currently #26 at Eq2). Watch Exocet83 at the finish, he passed dinio. I agree, these races are 50% luck/50% skillz.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-22 | 08:41:17
True that. Exocet started 4 hours earlier on Dinio. Project ETA now 6 hours ahead of Exocet and still 2 hours on Dinio. Yep, nobody fares well without luck ... Good luck!

Post by iconPost by FlyingCloud | 2020-09-22 | 09:59:22
Veel succes jij ook!
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-22 | 10:12:28
Bedankt, spannend!!
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-22 | 20:26:33
Malh did well the last couple of days and seems to be in the lead. Gonna be close though
Post by iconPost by UUnet | 2020-09-24 | 15:08:59
+1
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-22 | 15:52:38
BTW... I'd like to clarify that my grumbling about this format wasn't meant to denigrate the performance of whoever does well. Winning an event like this takes a lot of skill and effort, and should be congratulated.

My frustration with events like this is when a good performance is beaten by a fleet of hundreds who started at a different time. The best of those hundreds are still the best.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-22 | 18:52:13
No offense taken buddy, there´s only so much you can do in terms of timing and luck plays a significant role along the way, like in any other event, but I guess even more in a record attempt. Take care!
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-22 | 21:11:15
The long record attempts have a great deal more uncertainty in them for sure. However, the decision on when to start is yours. You have a lot of information outside the router that can be analysed. You have the option to restart if a better window appears. Do you have the fortitude to stick with the decisions you've made. And, then you have the agony of waiting weeks to learn if you were right or not? It's a much truer test of navigation skills.

I can see why folks concerned only with their VSR rankings are not wanting to do them. I feel on the short multi-leg races, if you follow the router and are mistake free you are virtually certain of the top 100 finish. However, is that really a test of navigation? Would I want one of those folks on my boat? Maybe in the galley. I know the waffles wouldn't be burnt ;)

Said by a guy who's certainly going to drop out of the top 100 here.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-23 | 14:45:38
Well said BB, I prefer the greater uncertainty, makes it so much more interesting in terms of planning and outcome, for sure frustrating at times, but so much more rewarding when it´s working out. Sorry for the likely drop in the ranking an take care
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-23 | 10:36:35
Malh in the lead now as far as I can tell, about 20/25min ahead of moi.


Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-23 | 16:12:36
I've done another of my obsessive-compulsive reviews... I went through the first 250 boats in the Cape Horn rankings, figuring anyone who can beat CocoNeuil's time will be among those. These counts might not be precise, and the date would vary by time zone, but here's what I found...

39 started on August 24. I believe Exocet and Espadon to be the leaders among them.

Approximately 110 started August 25. Roughly half of those haven't reached the Equator 2 gate yet, so many of these may not beat CocoNeuil. I believe the leaders of these to be malh and turtle1663.

I only found 10 that started on August 26. I believe the leaders to be jideasfogg and ausecoul.

43 started August 27. Catcha is the best I found among them.

I actually didn't find any starters for August 28. I guess there was a slow spot in the Atlantic that allowed August 29 starters to catch up to anyone who started on August 28, resulting in any such starters being outside the top 250 at Cape Horn.

Finally, I see 27 starters from August 29, including Luis75, Bosshogg, MacAll, and wallin. This should be the final wave of good finishers.

I'm guessing CocoNeuil and I will drop outside the top 100, but I'm hoping to maybe still be in the top 200.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-24 | 07:06:26
Nice analysis, thanks.

For what it´s worth, coming in this (CET) morning I now have a 23min lead on Malh ... nuts

Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-24 | 07:16:59
Jideasfogg coming in pretty hard, predicted ETA more than 2hr ahead of moi. Much further West and an extra day in the works but still ... looking good. Ausecoul is out

Post by iconPost by Luis75 | 2020-09-24 | 17:46:03
I would say I am definitely out too...BTW good ride and fun...
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-24 | 19:03:09
Yes good fun with many twists and turns, and just when you think you nearly made it someone even faster pops up :-) Take care
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-24 | 18:43:43
Jideasfogg +5hr´s ahead now. looks like we have a winner if projected conditions remain.

Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-25 | 08:05:35
Looks like Zezo deleted Estimated Race Time (ERT) and AvgSpeed from the VR Dashboard or maybe I´m doing something wrong. When calculating manually it remains to be seen if Jideasfogg can win coming in slightly under but very close


Post by iconPost by Hardtack | 2020-09-25 | 08:55:02
If you start VRDashboard before entering the Offshore race selection screen, these columns should appear.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-25 | 09:47:23
Cheers Hardtack! I always do that. Did a reboot and seems fine now. Thanks
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-26 | 08:24:13
Congratulations to Malh for his provisional 1st place!! Great race!

Jideasfogg incoming with ETA of 31:04:13, more than an hour faster then Malh with stable conditions ahead so pretty sure he will win ... wow, well done.
Post by iconPost by turtle 1663 | 2020-09-26 | 18:08:53
Nope he's not gonna make it
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-28 | 18:48:29
I'm going to see if I can find the southernmost water in the game. Should be at the Gould Coast, somewhere around 84.5S. From there, I'll head toward McMurdo Station, if time allows.

It looks like we might not see any more finishers under 33 days. The starters from August 25 who have not yet finished are now past 33 days, and the August 26 starters will be there soon. I can't find any August 27 starters inside 500 nm of the finish, so I doubt any of them will break 33 days either. With no known August 28 starters doing well, that leaves us with the August 29 starts like BossHogg, wallin, MacAll, and Luis75. I haven't checked routings, but conditions don't look favorable for them to make it.

Notice also, though... that there's a new tropical system spinning up off the southern end of Baja. The latest forecast has it looking quite strong 36-48 hours from now. If anyone started around September 1 or 2 and has found a way to sail to the Pacific Equator fast, then they could get a good ride from that and sneak in with a good finish just before the deadline.

The boats that re-started on September 3, 4, and 5 after finishing their first attempt won't make it. corsaire2B passed Fransou to be the leader on the water among boats on their second run, but still has over 3,800 nm to go with only 6 days or racing to go.

I guess Cvetan will open La Mauricienne for routing analysis soon. I didn't do it last year. It it fun? Somehow that course doesn't look fun to me.

Post by iconPost by Luis75 | 2020-09-29 | 11:01:29
I confirm YM, terrible conditions. My ETA is between 33 and 34 days, closer to 34.
Post by iconPost by Epice | 2020-09-29 | 17:13:22

Hello
new user here, trying NY - SF
I see big difference between VR wind and zezo right now (was OK few hours ago)
position 12N 00 15, 110W 02 47

the routing is now incoherent because of this difference

Any Ideas what can be root cause please ?

Post by iconPost by Epice | 2020-09-29 | 18:14:36
well it seems Ok now...


Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-09-30 | 18:17:02
Sometimes there will be sync issues around weather updates. The cause can be with NOAA, VR or Zezo. It's a good idea to see what the current wind Zezo expects when you run a route and see if it matches with both the server and the game screen. What the server thinks (visible with Dashboard) is what's going to affect your boat, so go with that. In those situations, it's good old seat of your pants navigation.

Usually, things will be back in sync by the end of the update process (about 2h 40m after it begins)

It happened in the Vendee prologue yesterday with the 12z update, which occurred right when the north group with all the top VSR guys expected to tack. Most folks caught it and continued on starboard for another 2 hrs till they reached the transition. A couple tacked with TWA set and walked away only to find out a few hours later that they'd nearly done a U turn.

Post by iconPost by wallin | 2020-09-30 | 12:13:32
I think I will finish with +/- 33d 23h 30m, maybe 34days
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-09-30 | 19:44:44
For anyone curious about the offscreen limitations of the user interface, I've achieved 85 27 17.02 S. It may be possible to get a little further South if you bounce around in there enough, but I don't think you can get to 85 30. Heading for McMurdo.

A couple years ago in in a different record event's dead time, I took a boat to the extreme North, which is different because in absence of ice, 90N is actually open water. The game won't let you sail to 90N, though. You get close, and it never says you're aground or anything like that... It just stops progressing your position northward. If I remember correctly, the limit was 89 59 30 N.
Post by iconPost by Adrien2008 | 2020-09-30 | 21:07:42
Where's your boat ? I can't see you... Can you still drive ?
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-10-01 | 02:50:08
I'm probably visible again now. I'm at 83S 170W or so.

Once you sail off the bottom (or the top) you can't see yourself. You can steer and I suppose could use programmation, but you can't set waypoints offscreen or see where you're going. You're still told if you're aground, though. I used the below site, along with my coordinates from Dashboard, to see how far south I could get:

https://www.add.scar.org

Kinda funny to think about sailing a 100 ft maxi through 30-meter thick ice in the Antarctic winter until you run aground, and then backing up and ramming the beach a few more times to see what the southernmost point you can find is...

I like to find creative ways to enjoy the game beyond the race itself. I also like to look up random little islands and shorelines that I sail past, to learn about them, etc. Over the years, the game has helped me learn a lot about things I never otherwise would have looked at. In this case, a variety of information about the Ross Ice Shelf and the terrain around it. :-)
Post by iconPost by Adrien2008 | 2020-10-01 | 06:06:38
Ok I see you again :-) Thanks for the AddScar site! One last area to explore before the line closes ?


Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-10-01 | 03:21:28
I have amused myself after record runs by sailing up rivers and seeing how far I can get. It's been invaluble in learning how to clear a grounding situation, really understanding the client/server issue and reading the data being provided to you.

If anyone cares, or cares to beat it, I found the Hudson River to be navigable to Bear Mountain Bridge / West Point. In reality it's navigable all the way past Albany, so, if anyone thinks they can get there, be my guest.
Post by iconPost by LinusVanpelt | 2020-10-01 | 07:27:07
Hi
YM going to South, for me it's North ;)
I'm sailing between Baffin island & Groenland, i think reach Resolute Bay before entering Beaufort Sea, i missed the North West Way :(

For the record i think some have quiet sleep now their ranking don't change a lot anymore, sorry (not a lot) for my contribution to take them out from top 100 ;)
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-10-01 | 13:09:57
I noticed franckhamburg sailing the NW Passage. Not enough time to reach SF, but he might get around Alaska.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-10-01 | 19:14:29
Velaska did the NW passage and he might just make it to SF in time. He's also on track to do it in under 26 days. To bad about that mark down at the Horn.

Baltic did the NW passage and is heading across the top of the Barents Sea, almost to Finland now.
Post by iconPost by Velaska | 2020-10-02 | 12:16:48
:) strollig around ... fun!

Post by iconPost by Gaffophone | 2020-10-01 | 20:54:17
It could be a summer race! The Artic Tour !!!
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