Zezo forum: Atlantic Record

Atlantic Record

Post by f0eeb | 2020-06-17 | 14:47:42

Hi to all,
the polar used for this record is MAXI TRI, and not ULTIM. Is possible to change it in the actual database. Thanks Cvetan.

11 Comments

Post by zezo | 2020-06-19 | 10:09:38

That _is_ the maxi trimaran.

Race data says

"name": "Ultim",
"label": "Ultim Solo",
"polar_id": 6,

Post by BooBill | 2020-06-20 | 00:27:08

Folks that have done the Atlantic record before in Ultim Solo, what do you think the ultimate record time will be? Prediction is going green in the 120ish hours, but I got to believe with the right system we could get close to 100.

Looks like the early starters are going to come in around 140 hours. I don't see anyone coming from behind who's going to beat that pace. Anyone disagree?

Questions is, is it worth finishing this run as it might actually stand up in the end, or park in the Scilly's and collect cards?

Post by YourMomSA | 2020-06-20 | 01:00:17

I intend to park and collect cards. The only reason I started was because the forecast showed it was unlikely that a good start window would occur before I can get to the finish.

The question of what time is likely to win is difficult to answer. I would tend to guess that your estimate of 100 hours is in the right range... but if we get exceptionally lucky, the winning time could probably be under 4 days... (In 2017, it was something like 3:17, but that might have been in fully crewed Ultims). But... as we saw in LA-Honolulu... You can't assume an excellent window will eventually occur. You probably could in the North Atlantic Winter, but not in June and July. So... 120 might win if nothing better comes up. Maybe even a little slower. I doubt 140 can win, though.

I guess the short version of my answer is a mostly useless "somewhere between 90 and 130 hours".

Post by SlyStarLeRetour | 2020-06-20 | 20:11:21

Let's finish this run and we'll get ready to have a speedy one in next couple of weeks :)

Post by BooBill | 2020-06-20 | 01:03:26

Well, that's helpful. The best I think I can do is 140. If that is certain to fall by 10 hours, then I guess I'll wait in the Scilly's for you.

Post by YourMomSA | 2020-06-20 | 03:48:15

One other thought, though... If there aren't any forecasts in Zezo's table that suggest doing better than 140 is possible within the next week... then perhaps you should go ahead and finish, and then re-start immediately. No harm in getting a 140 posted, as long as that choice doesn't hinder your card gathering.

In my case, I waited at first because it looked like 125 or so was going to be possible with a Day 3 start... and then that fell apart, so I went ahead and started. I doubt I can break 160 on this run, and that definitely isn't worth posting (with options, at least).

Post by SlyStarLeRetour | 2020-06-20 | 20:17:34

For sure Your Mom, but there is now an option for 120 h in 6 days _ not obvious the probability to get it is high but this is first interesting forecast _ awaiting to sail it side by side like we did LA HONO :)
Take care & kind regards

Post by LinusVanpelt | 2020-06-20 | 05:04:28

As on Honololu-Yokohama I left in recognition of the course over a time of 130 hours which seemed "honorable" in view of the forecasts.
I am currently sailing on a 140 hour time which, in the end, when we are now could be quite a good time in this race for a "newbie".
I was surprised to see this record set in June/July which is not the most favorable period for this type of performance.If our summer sets in, the favorable slots will be rare, if there are new ones ;)
Sail & see

Post by KenAdamson | 2020-06-26 | 20:16:43

I'm pretty new at this. I left right away and got 154.7h on my first TransAt. I'm now on a pace for about 124h :) I should finish in < 3d from now. It looks like a nice window opens up 3-Jul for a 108h attempt, which is proper fast and in line with the solo record!

Post by BooBill | 2020-06-26 | 21:09:20

Do you remember what the predicted time was when you departed? I don't remember seeing a 124h prediction at any time. There have been some really good times predicted for future departure, but those windows have been closing come departure time.

It all hinges I think on the start. If you have favorable winds at the start the system can strengthen while you are along the way. A bad start you can't overcome.

I spend 20 years looking for good windsurfing conditions in the Hamptons, seen some nice forecast, only to be disappointed. So this is pretty typical for this time of year.

Post by LinusVanpelt | 2020-06-27 | 00:34:48

As Boobill I remeber such time as forecast but not at the moment to start. It's a fact that it's not usually the best time of the year but records were broken in 2016 AND 2017 in July. So we still have a month
Hope gives life ;)