Post by iconPost by Sir_Petrus | 2015-09-03 | 12:11:59

Hi Cvetan
At what times are the wind updates scheduled?
I have done some VR vacation after VVOR so, it looks I lost track on this subject.

BR
Pedro

commenticon 16 Comments
Post by iconPost by lotsemann | 2015-09-05 | 17:57:10
Hi, Pedro!

The winds are still updated at the same time: 0800 and 2000 CET (0600 and 1800 UTC).

The new forecasts begin to be available at 0341 UTC and 1541 UTC and they are usually complete (up to 186 or 192 hours) by 0431 and 1631 UTC.

If you use the intermediate forecasts to adjust your game plan, their availability begins at 0941 and 2141 UTC and they are fully available (up to 186 or 192 hours) by 1031 and 2231 UTC.

As for the longer-term forecasts (up to 384 h), the last time I read about it, I had the information that they were available only twice a day, at around 1130 and 2330 UTC.

I hope this information is useful to you.

Best regards,

Alexandre (Lotseman)
Post by iconPost by Sir_Petrus | 2015-09-05 | 20:44:35
Hi Alexander
Thanks a lot for your explanation.
Then I believe zezo is still being update @ 4:00 ; 10:00 ; 16:00 ;22:00 (UTC) more or less 15 minutes.
Correct?

I was puzzled because we have been navigated all the time full downwind or upwind, therefor no major changes were visible.

Once again many thanks.
Pedro
Post by iconPost by lotsemann | 2015-09-05 | 23:02:20
Pedro, hi!

Zezo already shows the first new forecasts of the new series (usually 12 to 24 hours in the future) at 0341, 0941, 1541 and 2141 UTC. This explains why some boats adjust their headings earlier, especially when the short-term destination is within the range of those newer forecasts. Ten minutes later, the forecasts are extended to 48 to 60 hours. More ten minutes, and the time horizon goes to 84 to 96 hours. After further 20 minutes, the horizon extends to 132 to 144 hours. Finally, after 10 to 20 minutes, the forecast goes as far as 186 to 192 hours. So, depending on where your target is in time and space, you do not need to wait for the entire forecast (this is especially true for shorter races, such as the Fastnet, or in the present situation of the Clipper, where the south pack is approaching a critical juncture of the race in 48 hours).
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-06 | 14:49:17
Hi guys,

I found interesting that the 8 day forecast is suggesting the west route, going by the middle of the Atlantic.
The 16 day forecast, however, is asking to stay close to the african continent going directly south first, and turning southwest later.

Observing the leaders, I have the feeling that the 16 day route have advantage.
What are your thoughts about that?
Do you believe the 16 day forcast route is the best too?
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2015-09-07 | 12:07:00
There is a low-pressure system about 2 days in front of us, and it ill be a big decision point. You can't go in the middle, have to pass east or west of it.

Going East gives you better wind angle further don the road, but if the low moves close to the coast it might no be possible to pass, and that route is longer too.
Post by iconPost by lotsemann | 2015-09-08 | 02:44:05
In analyzing the routes, one has to consider the boat polars. The Clipper 70 is a true "downwinder" -- its top speed typically comes when it is broad reaching. As a result, the west route is likely to have the upper hand for the next few days.

When the boats reach the southeast tradewinds, it is quite probable that the East group will have the better angle, as Cvetan said. So, if they can steer clear from the low two days ahead, it might pay off, as they would be to the windward, in better angles and probably stronger winds, while the West group would be limited by the Brazilian coast.

I chose East, having taken into account my (limited) experience acquired during the FaceOcean Race, but nobody can be sure for now...

Sailor proposes, Eole disposes.

[corrected the mix between East and West. What type of sailor am I?! :)]
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2015-09-08 | 18:43:23
So far Eole seems to favor the coastal group, but we'll have to wait few more days to see if the Cabo Verde groups will get blocked by the center of the low.

And then the trade winds have slightly better angle to the West, but we will be sailing at better angles because of the eastern position. It's quite interesting leg.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-15 | 14:07:24
Playing with polars I noticed that this boats aren't that fast, specially with spinnaker. Volvo boats, for exemple, has more difference between the sails.
I'm trying to say that the boats who had chosen eastern route has better angle now and PROBABLY will win, but the race is closer that I could imagine at first and this happens because the speed is just a little better.
Eastern guys will sail with spinnaker with a lateral wind while boats who will sail through Fernando de Noronha islands will have to face front wind with the jib sail a lot of time.
Of couse, no one could tell if more people would make a different decision if the speed would be higher with spinnaker. My conclusion is that this caracterist make the legs at Clipper more puzzling.
I am not quite an experienced sailor in the game (or out at the sea, lol). So I am not sure I had it right, but it is a hipotesis.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-09 | 15:36:46
Thaks for the answers,

After I saw how trick it would be the west route I decided to follow the 16 day route suggestion and stay at the african coast. Out there you find lots of areas with no wind (the dowdrums?) and turning west after the cabo Verde sims the best way.

Guys going thru the middle of the islands should be blocked by the low.

It is nice to exchange some thoughts about the race.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-10 | 06:51:54
And they indeed are stucked there at Cabo Verde Islands. Winds bellow 7 knots for them and it will continue to be ugly after the next wind change. Maybe 36 hours to get out to the race again.

Guys in the middle position between the coast and the ilands have winds bellow 4 knots, but they will scape first, if the forecast keep predicting well.

Boats close to the african shore with irregular winds over 7 knots all the time.

The fast way to point A to point B isn't the straight line. Keep up the good work. \o/
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-11 | 06:01:38
And there we go. Another tactical split at the front.

Leader boats going directly south at the African coast took different decisions. Some turned west and face some light winds but started already to go to Brasil. Others decided to have stronger winds earlier tomorrow, but for this they had to go east getting away from the finish line.
While some drama and hard choices split the easterns, Cabo Verde fellows face again no wind at all.
The forgotten far western boats appear again. What seemed to me as the worst choice a week ago, looks a litlle better now. There is a passage for them at the middle atlantic, but it's always hard because they will get punished with more jibs and there are the doldrums, conditions change all the time and Aeolus may close the passage without warnings.

Very interesting leg indeed.
Post by iconPost by lotsemann | 2015-09-12 | 08:52:34
The boat plays a part in that -- have a look at the polars, especially in the region between TWA 50 and 80, and you will see what I mean. If it was a VO65, things would have been quite different. This Clipper tends to lose power in close reaching conditions.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-12 | 19:01:20
Western guys got slow winds again and they will have to tackle east one more time than west. Looks like they are ruled out.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2015-09-12 | 14:00:11
Rignt now it looks that all the boats from the fleet front, from 19W to 30W, are going to get very close again, within one hour at the finish.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-12 | 19:05:01
Without testing at the site, just viewing the map, I would bet at the eastern guys and, to me, without any science, the southern the better.

Later I will do the exercise and check what you are telling.
Post by iconPost by Onda3 | 2015-09-12 | 21:36:53
I did it and appeared to me the southern guys has now a 3 hours advantage comparing to the westerns.

It's a close race between those boats who turned west later and those who turned a little earlier.

There maybe some errors because I did it fast and didn't rechecked, but it's a beatiful leg with lots of alternatives.

A weather system that changes and the race will get a different final.
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