Projected course towards buoy 3
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 16:07:24

The projected course in ZeZo towards buoy 3 looks odd or am I mistaken ? I requested a 7 day prediction and the course leads me way south past buoy 3. I would expect a more easterly course after buoy 2 ..

commenticon 26 Comments
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 16:35:28
It is weird. The problem is that the algorithm has to be about 10 times slower to see well behind the corner in this case.

But there is one decision to be made now and even the better optimizer version can't help here. Weather system around Sri Lanka will decide if going 100-150 nm south will pay off and you just have to make the choice between playing it safe and going South, or playing it safe or taking the chance with the Indian coast.

From my current position the optimum route goes just North of the Maldives and dhem about 150 miles S of Sri Lanka.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 16:37:32
Here is how it should look:



The full picture
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 16:47:15
Here's how it shouldn't look then ..

http://www.clientes.nl/images/SailingSimulatorVOR.png
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 16:53:39
I know. Trying to think of something smart to make it work better without crashing it. If I put online the one that generates the picture above everybody will get blank screens in 2 hours.
Post by iconPost by pgfiore | 2012-01-17 | 16:49:46
I'm following the CG and stay. I'll go for the Schettino's way of life and graze the Indian coast...
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 16:56:45
I was tempted to do that yesterday, but there are not one, but two uncertain spots - close to India and then SL. And you have to get luck with both of them.

On the other hand going downwind 150 miles might not be a good idea with that upwind route later.
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 17:00:03
Do or die. Twice ..
Looks I am going for it ..
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 16:53:43
I think you're right about the weather system and optimal route. It looks good one moment and then when you look again a couple of hours later it looks like you'll be a dead duck going near Sri Lanka .. But then again, if you don't take a shot you won't hit anything ..
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 16:58:10
Who will you be saluting on Sri lanka Pgfiore ? Do you know an old sailor there ?
Post by iconPost by Berny | 2012-01-17 | 17:06:03
This beautiful ..................

In Italy there ARE good sailors ...... :-)
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 17:18:04
Guys, this is not funny.
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 17:19:42
I agree, let's not forget that people actually passed away on that ship.
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 17:18:10
OFF course there are ..
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 17:33:55
I am far more Northerly than you are Cvetan, I may not have much of a choice here. Going safe and steering clear of the Indian coast and Sri Lanka will cost me dearly. Twice ! Because I will loose going south and I will have to take the extra 150nm going south all to avoid getting stuck. So, what the heck, you win some you loose some .. I am heading for the Indian Coast and if I survive that one it's Sri Lanka next and if I survive that one I certainly won't be last ..

Thanks for explaining me about the algorithm. Makes perfect sense.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 17:51:51
I would say the same about my current position. I'm already close to the South end of the fleet and don't think that turning back N will be a winning move, so going to take the other chance.
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 18:17:38
Good luck then Cvetan, today I saw you taking on a far more southerly course than ZeZo was predicting from your position and I was already wondering about it ..
Post by iconPost by Bolero | 2012-01-17 | 18:18:11
Dont't worry Cvetan. I'm right next to you. The rest of our group broke off this morning, and steered about 10 degrees less than us. We don't have to worry until we reach the latitude of the southern tip of Ceylon.

I'm currently routing towards 1N 80E, and expect to change the routing destination in a day or two.

After all, there is only so much you can do automatically. Which is what makes all this so much fun, I guess.
Post by iconPost by Berny | 2012-01-17 | 17:52:16
You're right .... I'm sorry Master Cvetan

I did carry ..... because they are very angry about what happened ..... I also go by sea ...

sorry for my English

Berny
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-17 | 18:05:20
Berny, it was a perfect joke by itself, just somehow inappropriate in this context. Someone did something stupid and people died as result. But I don't think that the stupidity or whatever it was has a nationality attached to it.
Post by iconPost by Berny | 2012-01-17 | 18:33:34
Unfortunately I do not speak English well ...... use Google translator

for this I got a sentence different from how I wanted to say .........

What you say is right Master Cvetan

with estimated

Berny
Post by iconPost by pgfiore | 2012-01-17 | 22:18:30
It's not for fun, but to play down that bloody peace of news.

@GeorgeBest, we are in the same spot!
Post by iconPost by GeorgeBest | 2012-01-17 | 22:51:08
Great pgfiore! I saw you pop up right behind me all of a sudden!
I am heading for the beaches of India and will be on 138-140 for almost 4 skeds in a row. Let's keep in touch!
Post by iconPost by MBalhuizen | 2012-01-18 | 10:51:44
Zezo, you must have fixed/chanched something, from my position, (approx 25 nm N of you)the 7 day routing suggestion looks very plausible.
Post by iconPost by pgfiore | 2012-01-18 | 12:28:51
he did. look at "Optimizer changes"...
Post by iconPost by pgfiore | 2012-01-19 | 10:47:58
... the Southerners seem will win 100nm odd :(
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2012-01-19 | 10:52:17
That area SW of India looks worse with each forecast update ...
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