Post by iconPost by RodH | 2010-01-06 | 00:11:09

I note that I get distinctly different course predictions when I look ahead One Day vs. 2, 3, 5, or 7Days. I realize that each prediction takes into account the different wind predictions of each day, the further ahead that I look.
My question to Zezo and the users is, how much reliance should I place on the predictions that extend further into the future? I guess what I am really asking is the reliability of the UGRIB weather predictions at each day into the future? Does anyone have any historical information about the UGRIB reliability? Is there any statistical information available on this subject?

commenticon 1 Comment
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2010-01-06 | 16:52:58
The forecast is quite reliable in stable weather conditions with strong winds and well developed systems. I've seen 7-day forecasts come very close in the North Atlantic.

But that's not the case around the Equator where the Clipper race is now. Here everything over a day or two is more like a gamble, and in areas with very weak winds like 1-2 kt even the 12h forecast is not reliable.
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