Post by
YourMomSA | 2020-08-27 | 15:35:27
Toppen's method (using a shorter time horizon) can be good for managing volatile forecasts. Particularly when the volatility is a huge ugly spot a few days ahead of you that the router is proposing that you sail wildly variable courses to avoid. I think a lot of people do it that way.
I tend to choose alternative destinations instead. I'll run it with a longer horizon, and look at the isochrones, and I'll try to figure out what the router is sending me all over the place to avoid, and I'll decide where I want to go. Then I'll route to that spot. Sometimes this works out well for me. Other times, it produces disasters as I remain stubborn about a plan while the forecast gains consistency that says I'm sailing into the jaws of death.
It partly comes down to your priorities. If your goal is a quality finish, then following zezo's suggestion every time it wildly changes in unstable conditions will usually achieve that, as you'll be doing what a lot of people do, and your result against them will depend on how well you do it. If your goal is to do better than that, then you need to pick a plan and stay more consistent with it, and your plan needs to be either the right plan or at least neutral. Sailing consistently on a neutral plan will beat changing your plan every time the forecast updates. But sailing consistently on a wrong plan will ruin your race.
On the other hand, if your goal is to win, then you need to pick the right plan and be consistent with it. Which means rolling the dice a bit in volatile conditions, and being willing to risk an awful finish. You need to try to "win your group" and then hope your group wins the whole thing. I tend to do this... and sometimes it works... and sometimes it doesn't... which is the biggest reason my VSR isn't at the top.
I'm glad I didn't sign up for Summer Race. After Europa, I didn't need the stress of volatile light wind conditions. That stuff can be fun, but it can also be a nightmare.
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