Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2019-07-10 | 00:46:08

Here's a graph of the zezo predicted finish times based on a snapshot of the forecast times. I've included an exponential decline in the past forecast's value in the weighted average.

Does that make sense?

https://i.postimg.cc/Xv1WTyj7/Marseille.jpg

commenticon 5 Comments
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2019-07-10 | 00:47:16

Post by iconPost by zezo | 2019-07-10 | 19:50:39
I have to add sub-hour resolution next time.

But no matter what, the winning run always seems to start around 4AM my time ;-)
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2019-07-23 | 21:40:28
If you do add half hour starting times resolution that would be cool.

http://bit.ly/finishtimes

That's my revised finishing times chart that will update when your chart does.

It shows both full pack and no options as well as the current record to beat.

DonJuan21
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2019-07-29 | 19:12:55
There is a little problem with that. The router runs in 1-hour steps by the time it reaches the finish. Taking the residual DTF into account is not exactly an option, because the final point tends to be all over the places, sometimes past the finish mark.

Anyway, the 1-week uncertainty in weather should much more than the 1-hour resolution and it's better not to create false feeling of accuracy by adding precision to the display.
Post by iconPost by DonJuan21 | 2019-08-02 | 06:40:32
It was interesting getting the exponential decay constant right. If it is too gradual, it shows oscillations when the forecast "n" get's slim, like about a 48hrs out.

To make the blend from forecast to forecast not be oscillatory and model realistic non-oscillatory transitions, it can't take much more than 24hrs into account.

That is, the half-life reliability of any particular forecast is about 4-5 hrs. A 24hr old forecast can't be trusted at the 3% level. A 6hr old forecast is worth about 40% confidence.

Wish we could remove those discontinuities.

You can see that when you play the game. About half the time, there's a noticeable shift as forecasts transition.

DJ

More Cow Bell, more resolution.

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No news from Virtual Regatta about VOR (the ocean race).
1
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Log-in VR game marathon..
5
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VR Dashboard
5
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Dashboard - Precdicted Time ATLANTIC RECORD
1
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the prawn star
9
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polars virtual regatta
8
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how to convert Grib files to Grib2?
3
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VSR, XP points
7
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Predicted times
3
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Nord Stream *3*
11
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Game on 12Z, but Zezo still working with 06Z
3
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race wait points
1
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special boats?
7
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VR Dashboard in Firefox?
6
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ESCARGOT CLASS
11
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Los Angeles - Honolulu
26
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Rounding a Buoy
12
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VR Waypoint Heavy Bug Reporting
3
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Time of ending Jules Verne
4
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Shore detection by Zezo
2
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Nord Stream Race 2
7
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Trying to Break the VR Map Mistery !
3
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Navigating to "xxx.0" TWA
26
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Tara4 - no refresh
2
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Jules Verne: Inconsistency of headings and speeds, simulation !!
5
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VR, Zezo, Qtvlm card offsets
2
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Island's coordinates
34
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Tara Ocean 4
6
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Solo Maitre Coq
21
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Adjustable timeshift ?
3
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gate crossing question
7
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Expanded View on PC
3
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Panic at VR Nord
7
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Delays during the sail changes, or directions changes
3
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(Game wind = Zezo wind ) ⍯ (Grib winds = Windy.com)
7
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VR ending the ELO ranking.
34
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NMEA feed
128
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Dashboard Map Track Label not including the segment.tag
5
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VR ingame time
6
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VIRTUAL REGATTA and Phillip Ganier. Worst and worst every day...
7
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beta.realsail.net
2
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Escort Frigate
6
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Out of memory. If you are the developer of this content ....
17
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Question about GFS Grib
5
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RORC Caribbean 600
14
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sliding VSR
16
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Trying to use Zezo to select best combination of sails to select
7
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TARA OCEAN 3
9
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RORC Transatlantique Race
6
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Game appears stuck on 00Z weather from yesterday
4
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Sydney to Auckland
28
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Personal Message pages deleted
7
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New zezo fonction
2
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VR Ranking 2021
7
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Autosail malfunction
3
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Comments from a newbie to "long term" routing
1
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Massive thanks to Cvetan
7
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Fleet section mode record not working
2
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Possible routes on the Map tab
3
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Purple skippers on VR Dashboard
3
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UTC or CET time ?
2
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multiple routes?
2
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Real Sail
4
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Map a little gloomy
8
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Trophée Jules Verne - Route à l'envers ?
2
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Looks like weather updates offline for next 18h
26
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Bring the good old days back
7
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All.grib 0.0k ?
9
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different speed
3
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Strange 0.5 mille VR Scale
3
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Just an idea for a new feature...
7
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Connexion impossible
1
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Donations
7
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New leader - seems to be using Zezo
38
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Bravo Zezo
4
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zezo : Huge job - Huge thx
2
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Difference between boat speed display on VR, dashboard and polar curves
7
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Vendée Globe: Track lines falling too short of ischrones
8
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Tara Ocean
29
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VR winds currently not up to date ?
1
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"Sails Change" within the Programming
3
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RORC Transat finish moved to Antigua
3
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Weather update not appearing...
19
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